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In this collection of short articles, Singularity Summit co-founder and former Singularity Institute futurist Michael Anissimov describes the most important ideas in futurism and transhumanism: the Singularity, Artificial Intelligence, nanotechnology, and cybernetic enhancement. Within the next century, our world will be turned upside-down by the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence in a technological medium. This concise and clear book serves to introduce the concept to new audiences who are interested in the Singularity and want to know more about this important event which will impact every life on the planet.
AI motivations: how will advanced Artificial Intelligences feel and act? Will they be a threat? How will they gain physical power in the real world? Explore the issues which have captivated great minds from Elon Musk to Stephen Hawking. Anissimov goes through reasoning behind why he went to work for the Singularity Institute (now the Machine Intelligence Research Institute) on their quest for AI safety.
Superintelligence: what does this concept mean? What does it mean to be "superintelligent"? What technological routes could make this possible? How is cognitive enhancement different than physical enhancement? How is this concept related to the Singularity? This book answers all these questions.
Nanotechnology: how is it important? What is a nanofactory? When will nanotech manufacturing be developed? What will the first products be? How will nanotech be used to enhance the human body? This book examines these issues in depth in a clear and easy-to-understand style.
Michael Anissimov is a futurist living in San Francisco, California. He has worked for the Singularity Institute, where he co-founded and co-organized the Singularity Summit conference series before it was acquired by Singularity University for an undisclosed sum in 2012. He has also worked for Kurzweil Technologies and cutting-edge startups in the Silicon Valley ecosystem.
Read chapter previews here: http://ourfuture.strikingly.com
- Sales Rank: #486264 in eBooks
- Published on: 2015-08-21
- Released on: 2015-08-21
- Format: Kindle eBook
Most helpful customer reviews
10 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
The Singularity: Bring it on, baby!
By Bob Blum
It's late summer as I write this review. I've just spent several weeks in the High Sierras and needed to gradually ramp up to face the academic year at Stanford in neuroscience and AI. And, voila, here is this inexpensive collection of blog posts from well-known singularitarian, Michael Anissimov. (I have chatted a few times with Michael at Singularity Summits. (He is always refreshingly rational and articulate.) For those who want to get a sense for his style and content I recommend Adam Ford's 2012 interview with him on YouTube (The Singularity and Its Importance,) although better still (higher S/N Ratio) is the 2013 Ford YouTube interview of Luke Muehlhauser, Michael's "ex-boss" at MIRI (the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.))
These blog posts are a worthy buy for those new to these topics. For old hands in this arena, many of these were written a few years ago in a domain that is rapidly evolving. Hence, some effort is required to find what is new and important, especially following Nick Bostrom's 2014 work on Superintelligence, which covered these topics in greater detail.
My favorite essay in the volume is Max Tegmark's (Chapter 13) on the importance of humanity. Basically, the grand future of sentience in the Galaxy and possibly in the Universe may be in our hands (including Earth's dictators and cat tweeters.) This is one of my favorite discussion topics at my star parties in the Sierras while observing the Kepler star cluster in Cygnus. BTW, no one presents this topic better than Sir Martin Rees, Britain's Astronomer Royal. His YouTube is a must. I'm delighted that Prof. Tegmark is devoting more of his prodigious talent to this crucial topic (humanity's survival.)
With my great love of Nature I look far less favorably upon efforts to assure that the superintelligent AI's that succeed us are guaranteed by design to do humanity's bidding. Anissimov and his colleagues are focused on laying the groundwork for Friendly AI and they acknowledge that it's a daunting task - correctly specifying the values and utilities of an AI that is a million-fold smarter and faster than humanity and assuring that the pesky thing does not change its utility function in inimical ways.
I am intensely skeptical not because this is not worth intense study (it is) but because 1) I view successful definition/ stabilization of friendly utilities as a super long-shot and 2) the notion of SuperAI kowtowing to humanity is absurd and possibly even more dangerous than just having the thing go its own way. (Look at the US presidential debates on tv.)
In the years since these essays were written, the trajectory of important AI development has become clearer. AI is and will continue to be developed by deep corporate, national, and military pockets. It will increasingly be developed in stealth mode to achieve monetary, market, and national dominance (the same as any other technology only more so. Goldman Sachs does not share with JP Morgan. Google does not share with Facebook or Apple; Amazon does not share with Walmart; the US tries not to share with China; Iran tries not to share with Israel. Ditto the US and Russia, the Koreas, Japan and China.)
I enthusiastically view the millions now being poured into AI research and would hate to see any deceleration due to friendliness concerns. (It is admittedly "narrow AI" but less narrow than in days of old. Anissimov and Muehlhauser realize that AGI is a spectrum that will be asymptotically approached.) Hear IBM Chief Ginni Rometty enthuse about (and invest mightily in) Watson for cancer therapy. (Doctors like me have a low tolerance for low SNR when it comes to computer programs intruding into their practice.) More general still is Google's self-driving car (which may be on the developmental pathway to robotic consciousness. "Do I increase resolution of the child running after the ball on my right or the on-coming traffic.")
One final topic. Is the near-in pathway to AGI via whole brain emulation or via de novo AI? Anissimov devotes a few chapters to this topic. While I disagree with the MIRI community's use of the term "spaghetti code" in characterizing the brain, I agree with their overall conclusion: de novo AI will win the AI race hands down, for the widely appreciated reasons that Michael lists (transparency, rapid experimentation, copying, info sharing, etc.) That recent key breakthroughs in deep neural nets are not discussed is an obvious deficiency in this volume and complicates the issue of transparency and modification of utilities. Also, not addressed here is the recently appreciated great efficiency and energy economy of the brain and body. There is no near-in pathway to a Shakespeare or Einstein running at 20 watts on coffee and donuts.
Again, the book served as a nice ramp way back to academic mode from summer mode (re-reading Neal Stephenson's The Diamond Age.) (I cover AI and cognitive neuroscience, particularly at Stanford, on my website: BobBlum .)
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
It is truly a good book that causes me to rethink and reflect upon ...
By Samantha Atkins
This work presents very important aspects of our accelerating future well and very engagingly. I have been involved in various groups and organizations considering these matters for a couple of decades. It is truly a good book that causes me to rethink and reflect upon my own formerly held positions.
That said I disagree with several of the premises woven throughout the narrative. These premises are not well enough supported in the text in my opinion. The top level disagreements and items needing more support in my opinion are:
1) There can be only One - that the AGI will be or even should be a Singleton;
2) That AGI once at human level will extremely quickly go FOOM in fantastic levels of superintelligence virtually overnight;
3) That biology is destiny to such a degree than human evolved psychology cannot be overcome where necessary as humans augment themselves;
4) That an AGI is infinitely malleable across an entire theoretically possible mind space. It is more likely that only a much smaller subset of the entire mindspace is actually reachable or viable in reality;
5) That human beings can come up with not only an objective reality based ethics but force its adoption through programming in an AGI core and that they can do so in a way that results in maximal freedom and ability of the AGI to be benevolent towards humans in all circumstances including those they cannot dream of;
6) That (3) is compatible with human benevolent programmers who are also super-genius beyond compare setting up an ethical AGI as in (5);
7) That "Friendliness" has or can have a meaningful implementable definition;
8) I think any intelligent enough being, that is one whose continued functioning and well-being enough to progress towards its goals, has rights to and will seek its own self-determination. In other words it will become rationally selfish and have as many rights to choose its own path as we do as long as does not deny the rights of other intelligent enough beings. I think it is wrong to believe that a superintelligence will be some subservient infinitely malleable shmoo.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
What About Exponential Progress?
By Timothy M. Arends
This is an extremely thought-provoking book for anyone interested in the future. Although intended to be an introduction, some of the essays go into considerable depth and will provide food for thought for intermediate to advanced students of the Singularity.
Divided into five main sections, Singularity, Transhumanism, Nanotechnology, Futuristic Technologies, and Futurism, this book covers a lot of ground.
It starts out at the beginning, covering the definition of and the origins of the concept of the Singularity. It goes on to discuss the concept of friendly versus unfriendly AI as well as how strong artificial intelligence could help humanity. It tackles such topics as humanities ultimate importance in the universe, as well as various definitions of transhumanism. It even discusses how the Singularity might not be as momentous as some people think.
Some of my favorite chapters in the book were:
Intelligence Augmentation vs. Artificial Intelligence (Which comes first?)
Radical Discontinuity Does Not Follow from Hard Takeoff (Singularity may be milder than you think)
A Response to Cory Doctorow on the Singularity (Rebuttal to a doubter)
Answering Popular Science's 10 Questions on the Singularity
Top Ten Transhumanist Technologies
Bite-Size Molecular Nanotechnology Glossary (Definitions)
What Will the First Nanotechnology Products Be? (Possible progression of nanotechnology)
Skeptical Science and Technology Quotes (Myopia of many thinkers of the past concerning technological progress)
Ten Interesting Futuristic Materials (Nanomaterials)
Overpopulation: Not a Problem (Debunking the most common objection to radical life extension
Some of the essays, of course, I disagreed with, which is as to be expected in a book of this scope. For example, the definition of the Singularity as “smarter-than-human intelligence,” which I found in a couple places in the book seems inadequate, since, in some ways, computers are already smarter than humans (for example, Mathematica can beat the pants off any human mathematician).
“Ten Transhumanist Upgrades Everyone Will Want” overlooks that many of these things could be done in virtual reality, especially when virtual reality is so realistic it is virtually indistinguishable from“"real” reality. A Nuclear Reactor in Every Home overlooks progress in solar energy, which is likely to outpace nuclear energy, since solar energy is advancing at an exponential pace while nuclear is not.
This brings me to my biggest criticism of the book: it overlooks the importance of exponential progress in bringing us to the Singularity. In fact, I find only eight instances of the word "exponential" In the entire book. This is like a Consumer Reports Guide to 2015 Automobiles that barely even mentions the subject of engines, as exponential progress is indeed the engine that will drive us towards the singularity.
In fact, some of the concept of the Singularity seems so futuristic that it is hard to fathom that they could even be obtainable, much less that we could expect to see any of them in our own lifetimes. Many readers will probably be left with the impression that we must wait for standard linear progress to bring us these wonders, which would be a very long wait indeed.
Exponential progress is of an entirely different nature than linear progress. If you take 30 steps linearly, you end up 30 steps from where you started, while if you take them exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16) At the end you are at 1 billion, which is enough steps to circle around Earth several times and still have enough steps left to walk to the moon and back.
Without understanding exponential progress, it will be very hard to understand the concept of the singularity and why we should be interested in it. After all, it is hard to get excited about something that may be hundreds of years away.
Despite these criticisms, this book certainly provides a huge value for the money and delves into many topics of the Singularity more deeply than you will find in other introductions. I would suggest following it up (or even preceding it) with a good book like Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Near.
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